It’s 8 weeks to the end of the year and it appears that Nigerian mainstream pop music will not be getting an emphatic hit record.

While it might be easy to dismiss this concern as cynical or an underappreciation of the current ecosystem, the volume of hit records from the preceding years shows that Afrobeats has recorded its slowest year in a long time.

Both major stars and emerging artists have churned out records to continue their rise in 2024. However, a smash hit has eluded the ecosystem.

Ayra Starr’s ‘Comma’, songs from Kizz Daniel’s ‘TZA’ EP, BoyPee, Hyce, and Brown Joel’s ‘Ogechi’, Ayo Maff’s ‘Dealer’, Seyi Vibez & Muyeez’s ‘Instagram’, Kaestyle’s ‘My Dealer’, Smur Lee’s ‘Juju’, Rema’s ‘Ozeba’, Victony’s ‘Stubborn’, Tems’ ‘Love Me Jeje’, and Asake’s ‘MMS’ are among the biggest releases of 2024. However, a bulk of these songs didn’t enjoy the longevity and wide patronage to propel them to smash-hit status.

This lack of a smash hit can be blamed for what is a quiet year for Afrobeats on the global front as the local front didn’t give the diasporsa something to amplify.

As Nigerian mainstream pop music appears to be in a state of diminishing return manifesting through the lack of an emphatic breakout star and hit record, stakeholders have grappled to explain what could be the reasons behind this decline.

The exhaustion of Amapiano fusion

The importation of the vibrant Amapiano sound from South Africa is responsible for the last major sonic shift in Nigerian Pop music. When Amapiano fusion in Afrobeats is discussed, it’s impossible not to touch on the impact of hitmaker Asake and his era-defining partnership with producer Magicsticks which dominated the soundscape and had artists of all cadre mirroring his sound.

After nearly 4 years of exploration, the fusion appears to have peaked with nothing exciting left to offer. And with no new sound at hand to take the baton, the soundscape seems to be in a limbic state where songs aren’t gaining mass appeal or sticking long enough to become a major hit.

Less Risk Taking and little Innovation

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While appearing on the Zero Conditions Podcast, the host Melody Hassan mentioned that songs haven’t been connecting in 2024 the way they used to. On the podcast, Renowned Pop Culture Writer Ayomide Tayo pointed out that several new generation artists are sounding like the third iteration of a superstar.

While a line of influence can always be drawn from new stars to the major stars that shaped their artistry, the lack of distinction can create an industry populated by similar-sounding records hovering at the same level. This has invariably affected the chances of releases resonating to the point of becoming a hit since ingenuity continues to take the back seat over template-driven music.

This desire to take a different approach rather than the part of crafting Afrobeats tune for global consumption is what inspired Rema’s sophomore album ‘HEIS’ which is undoubtedly the most risky and dynamic project of 2024. Although the outcome is divisive and the project got some stick from this writer, Rema’s bold attempt to snatch Afrobeats from Amapiano’s choking grip must be applauded.

Victony’s brilliant genre-bending on ‘Stubborn,’ Kaestyle’s desire to look inward and create from his cultural roots, and Kizz Daniel’s exciting exploration of indigenous Nigerian and African music are some of the risk-taking that has delivered exciting moments for Afrobeats in 2024. And while a smash hit is yet to emerge from this, it is a reminder of the ability of indigenous genres to propel Nigerian pop music.

Speaking on the issue of diminishing returns in Nigerian mainstream music, Renowned Music Journalist Joey Akan opined that there’s a lack of creativity from the top artists playing it safe. He argued that while this might not be an issue, the artists in the underground who should be crafting new sounds that top artists borrow from and propel are simply mirroring the top artists in a desire to score a similar level of success.

Saturation and Inflation

Another factor that has been fingered for the low turnout of hit singles or even that lack thereof in 2024 is the saturation.

The entrance of music streaming platforms coupled with the global exportation of Nigerian music through the “Afrobeats to the World” movement has lowered the barrier of entry while equally providing increased funding that has created artists way faster than the domestic market is growing.

Today, more artists are operating in the ecosystem, and while a rising population suggests there are more than enough listeners to service the market, just a fairly small section of Nigeria’s nearly 200 million people are digitally connected.

This issue of saturation and inflation more money in the industry has created. Today, artists with resources are churning out music and marketing them via similar mediums to get the attention of the same group of listeners whose patronage will propel their records to hit status.

In an internet era where attention is fleeting, the issue of saturation becomes more of a problem when the majority of these releases lack the distinction and uniqueness needed to get the mass attention that creates a hit.

Afrobeats is part of a global decline

It might be important to point out that Afrobeats isn’t the only industry that has struggled to deliver hit records in 2024.

While Country and Pop music have enjoyed a successful year in the United States thanks to the success of Tedy Swims, Shaboozy, Sabrina Carpenter,Taylor Swift, Chappell Roan, and Benson Boone, hip-hop has struggled to dominate the upper half of the chart. It took a viral rap beef between two of the biggest rappers Drake and Kendrick Lamar for the genre to score a hit record in 2024.

Even the vibrant UK rap scene and the energetic Jamaican Dancehall scenes have struggled to deliver global hits in 2024.

Bottom Line

While the element of luck in scoring hit records cannot be discounted, we must acknowledge the issues that may have contributed to the poor return of smash hit songs in 2024.

It’s time for the ecosystem and the talents that drive it to start innovating rather than towing the same path in a desire to partake in the “Afrobears to the World” largesse.

Artists, especially up-and-coming talents, need to show drive and hunger by innovating and taking bolder steps to distinguish themselves rather than recreating already tired sounds of top stars.

The big stars have for over a decade carried the weight of the delivery of hit records, while the power bottoms, as Akan described the underground, have continued to innovate and give the top something to popularise. It’s time for everyone to play their role.

2024 might have been a quiet year but with the talents and drive that shape Afrobeats there’s enough reason to be optimistic that 2025 will be a better year.
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